Managers Eye Political Appointments, Fed As Keys to Second Obama Term

Hedge fund managers said they will watch upcoming negotiations and personnel appointments in Washington, D.C. for clues to how to position their portfolios after Barack Obama won a second term as U.S. president this week. Resolving the so-called fiscal cliff -- tax hikes and federal spending cuts that are scheduled to take effect in early January, barring an agreement between Congress and the White House -- is the most crucial issue facing markets, managers said. “The fiscal cliff is the mother of all events,” said Scott Warner, director and sector specialist for long/short equity strategies at Irvine, California-based Pacific Alternative Asset Management Co. Failing to resolve the fiscal cliff could result in a “2 percent to 3 percent drag” on U.S. GDP, meaning a drop of between 2 and 3 percentage points, Warner said in a telephone interview. Resolution will hinge in part on the outcome of Congressional leadership elections next week, Jason Mitchell, co-portfolio manager of GLG Partners LP’s Global Equity Fund. If Eric Cantor becomes Speaker of the House, “he will be very tough for Obama to negotiate with,” Mitchell said in a telephone interview from Boston.

Current Speaker of the House John Boehner “at least tries to work with” the White House, he said. Also crucial will be who is named as Treasury Secretary if Timothy Geithner departs as expected, Mitchell said. Among the leading contenders are Erskine Bowles, co-chair of the Simpson-Bowles Commission and a White House Chief of Staff under President Clinton, and the current White House chief of staff, Jack Lew. The Federal Reserve Bank will “likely play a bigger role” under President Obama than it would have had Mitt Romney won, Stephen Jen, partner at London-based global macro hedge fund SLJ Macro Partners, said in an email. “This means that financial market distortions are likely to be higher under Obama, and the risks of financial market volatility higher.” Tuesday’s outcomes “increased the probability that we will be in a ‘rates lower for longer’ environment,” Anthony Lawler, a London-based portfolio manager on GAM’s multi-manager team, said in an email.

Addressing the fiscal cliff is likely to be “a long drawn-out process,” said George Papamarkakis, managing partner and chief investment officer at North Asset Management, a London-based global macro fund. “It is very unlikely we will see any movement in this Congress, so we are expecting any developments to take place next year, which increases the likelihood of the markets trading down, as they can’t bear the uncertainty,” Papamarkakis said in an email. North Asset Management is unlikely to add risk while the fiscal cliff looms, Papamarkakis said in an email. “We are largely sidelined in regards to outright directional risk and won’t be looking to add until we have greater visibility.” Long/short equity managers have also been reducing risk in their portfolios, PAAMCO’s Warner said. “We have seen modest reduction in gross exposure across the board among our long/short managers,” he said. GAM may make some tweaks to its portfolio, Lawler said. “On the margin, we are likely to add to trades benefiting from yield, so for example in credit and currencies,” he said. “We are also likely to reduce our shorter-term long volatility exposure because we expect policy to remain solidly supportive for the coming quarters.”



BLOOMBERG

Honoured at the Sauren Golden Awards 2012

George Papamarkakis was awarded with two gold medals for excellent fund management by the Sauren Fonds-Research AG

On 6 September 2012 the Gold Medals of the Sauren Fund Manager Rating in various categories were awarded at the Sauren Golden Awards Ceremony in Frankfurt. The Sauren fund manager ratings focus on analysing the individual fund managers and their capabilities. This unique, manager-based rating approach is used to assess the future prospects of investment funds. Based on a detailed qualitative analysis of the fund manager, the rating procedure is very reliable when it comes to assessing the future success of individual investment funds.

George Papamarkakis, co-founder, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer at North Asset Management was honoured with two gold medals for excellent fund management in the category "Global Macro".

Information on the Sauren Golden Awards 2012 in the comprehensive brochure.

Best global macro hedge fund winner: MaxQ Fund - North Asset Management

North Asset Management's MaxQ Fund distinguishes itself from other global macro funds by focusing beyond just the G3 markets, says the company's chief investment officer and portfolio manager George Papamarkakis. This, combined with its active trading approach, has helped the fund through the volatility in 2011 and so far in 2012.

The fund was up 25.19% last year. Papamarkakis says having a short-term investment horizon meant the fund was not caught out by reversals in the market.

"There were a lot of dislocations around the world, so we took advantage of, for example, the slowdown in China," he explains. "We took advantage of the fact that the Chinese renminbi market started becoming more liberalised and so forwards started to normalise.

“We took advantage of the weakening in the commodity complex towards the end of the third quarter when people again started questioning the spill over from China. And we also took advantage significantly of the opportunities within the European time zone and all the turmoil that we've seen."

The fund focuses largely on two asset classes, fixed income and foreign exchange, with a bit of equities. It combines a global macro view with a bottom-up microanalysis coupled with fundamental and tactical strategies.

Fundamental strategies generate two-thirds of the fund's returns with the manager looking at ways to express country specific views that are neutral to the global risk environment. The investment horizon is three to six months.

The tactical side of the portfolio seeks directional opportunities supported by statistical driven signalling. The investment horizon is between 24 hours and a few weeks.

Investment ideas are expressed using liquid instruments in liquid markets, an approach that Papamarkakis admits can mean missing opportunities. However, because the fund offers 45-day liquidity, he thinks it would be "imprudent" to have illiquid assets in the portfolio.

"In 2008 we saw a lot of funds that obviously had significant illiquid positions which their investors weren't aware of. In contrast our fund, despite having a very good 2008 [up 6.67%] and being significantly positive, had redemptions like the rest of the industry. We were able to meet them in a very orderly manner without imposing any gates. That's a function of being invested in those liquid markets."

The concept of liquid markets has changed post-2008, believes Papamarkakis. It is more difficult to identify which instruments or markets are liquid. He defines a liquid market as one where an investor can exit within 24 hours.

The fund should be able to trade quickly in out and out of positions if liquidity disappears from the market, says Papamarkakis. Holding a net long volatility position helps to protect the portfolio in times of distress.

Risk is also managed by limiting exposure to the G3 countries. "We will trade one currency or one interest rate market versus another market. That's usually the predominant theme or predominant hedge we will use in order to isolate overall global risk environment and focus very much on that micro opportunity."

Volatility also works in the fund's favour. This is where Papamarkakis believes there will be opportunities over the next 12 months. "Europe will continue to be a source of potential return because of the volatility that we're seeing due to the [eurozone] crisis. That will be predominantly focused in the fixed income space," he says.

One of the opportunities stemming from the eurozone's woes is an oversupply of government bonds, bringing a substantial discount on most new issuance.

French bonds in particular will underperform, believes Papamarkakis. French president François Hollande wants a push for growth and less focus on austerity measures. "People will question the commitment by the new administration to [fiscal] tightening and at the same time issuance continues to come into the market. So the ability for the market to digest that incredible amount of supply is quite limited."

Outside the EU, Paparmarkakis is watching the Swiss market as well as Norway and Sweden He thinks the Nordics could benefit from the eurozone situation while Norway will profit from high oil prices and a strong domestic economy.

[Pictured: George Papamarkakis, North Asset Management]
"There are a few themes out there. I think the main theme has always been quite opportunistic with quite a short-term trading environment."

Timing in such volatile markets is important. In order to be able to take advantage of opportunities, the fund keeps “enough” unencumbered cash to move quickly when a chance presents itself.

The biggest risk to the fund is a decrease in volatility.

Fund facts
Fund name: MaxQ Fund
Portfolio manager: George Papamarkakis
Management company: North Asset Management
Contact information: Charlotte Hervouet, 50 Hans Crescent, London SW1X 0NA (+44 (0)20 7590 7600; ch@north-int.com; www.northasset.com)
Launch date: December 2, 2002
Assets under management: $130 million (at December 31, 2011)
Net cumulative performance since inception: 114.57% (at April 30, 2012)
Annualised return: 8.45%
Annualised volatility: 13.74%
Sharpe ratio: 0.61
Strategy: global macro
Share classes: euro, US dollar
Administrator: GlobeOp Financial Services
Auditor: BDO
Prime broker: Credit Suisse
Legal counsel: Simmons & Simmons
Domicile: Ireland
Listing: Irish Stock Exchange
Management fee: 2%
Performance fee: 20%
Minimum investment: €/$100,000
Lock-in: none
Redemption/liquidity terms: monthly with 45 days' notice

Hedge Funds Review

Traders' Targets: Portugal And Spain

LONDON—As fears of financial "contagion" resurface in Europe on the back of Ireland's woes, hedge-fund managers are cautiously setting their sights on potential problems in countries such as Portugal and Spain. But they face political and other challenges in placing bearish bets.

The deteriorating economic picture in some corners of Europe clearly has the attention of many hedge-fund managers and other investors who see Ireland's rescue package as little more than a bandage for the continent's woes. They are expecting more bad news to come, predicting that borrowing costs elsewhere will become prohibitive, potentially forcing other countries to also seek a bailout or restructure their debt.

Yet some hedge-fund managers aren't piling wholesale into bearish bets on weak European countries for a variety of practical and political reasons.

One is basic: Predicting if or when a government may request a bailout can be difficult, a problem that is compounded by the time and expense that comes with placing and exiting trades around European sovereign and corporate debt.

Also, the notion of betting against Europe's peripheral economies has also become an emotional topic amid debate about whether such moves have contributed to those countries financial woes, rather than merely reflecting them.

Politicians and regulators in some European countries and the U.S. have called for the banning of certain instruments, such as derivatives known as credit-default swaps. For their part, hedge-fund managers are quick to argue that bearish bets are a result of the economic problems, not the cause, and that much of the negative pressure comes from traditional asset managers, banks and corporate treasurers, seeking to protect themselves.

Nevertheless, some managers are concerned that politicians could move to ban CDS and say they are limiting their exposure to them.

The Irish rescue effort comes on the heels of Greece's acceptance in May of its own international bailout to avoid default. Many hedge-fund managers and investors now see Portugal, with its combination of budget deficits, high government debt and low growth, as the next shoe to drop.

But, investors say, the bigger concern is if funding problems spread to much bigger economies, such as Spain, Italy or even France, where investors fear a bailout would be impractical. The worry, therefore, is that it could lead to a restructuring of debt that would inflict losses on bondholders, many of which are European banks.

Among those examining Spain is George Papamarkakis, at hedge fund North Asset Management LLP, which has long been focused on sovereign issues in Europe. In recent weeks, the roughly $200 million London-based fund has been adding to bearish bets on Spanish government bonds and the local equity-market index, according to Mr. Papamarkakis, who says he isn't using CDS for his Spanish sovereign trade.

With Spain's fundamentals weak, Mr. Papamarkakis says he expects the domestic economy to continue to suffer. And, as the country's cost of borrowing increases, it will become more costly for Spanish banks to borrow money, and therefore other local companies as well. The trade is among the fund's top three positions.

"The elephant in the room is that the [Spanish] real-estate market continues to be over-levered and hasn't corrected," says Mr. Papamarkakis. Such a correction would have an impact on local asset prices and in turn on the local equity markets, he says.

Fortelus Capital Management LLP, a credit and distressed fund with more than $1 billion in assets, also is betting on the increasing likelihood of default in European countries. In recent weeks, it has added to existing bearish bets on the debt and equity of financial, construction, real-estate and industrial companies in Southern Europe, according to a person familiar with the matter. Its strategy includes short positions in CDS and the bonds directly.

Fortelus's view is that the rising cost of borrowing for countries will make it more expensive for banks and other companies to find funding too. The trades account for the largest "short" position for the London-based fund, which typically has more bullish than bearish bets. And, the fund has been shifting its focus in terms of countries as concerns have spread from Ireland to Portugal and Spain, and now to Italy and even France, the person says.

Still, events are proving difficult for hedge funds to predict. Some managers at macro funds, which focus on economic trends in currencies, interest rates and other instruments around the world, were caught out by the euro's sudden downturn earlier this month linked to Ireland's woes. Many managers had been buying the currency during September and October as part of a trade betting that the dollar would weaken on the back of the U.S.'s latest round of quantitative easing.

As a result, some funds have reduced their positions as part of a broader move to take risk off of the table heading into the end of the year, where trading tends to be lighter due to the holiday season.

Still, "the problems in the euro zone are not going to go away just because Ireland has been bailed out," says Christopher Peel, founding partner of London-based BlackSquare Capital LLP, which invests in hedge funds on behalf of clients. "Other countries whose houses are not in order are going to be held to the same scrutiny. I don't think those issues are going to go away, which is why the euro is going to stay under pressure."

By CASSELL BRYAN-LOW

North Asset's Papamarkakis Sees Europe's Debt Crisis Resurfacing

Europe's sovereign-debt crisis will resurface in markets even after the European Central Bank pumped money into the banking system and Greece restructured its debt, according to George Papamarkakis at North Asset Management LLP. "We still have big issues," Papamarkakis, chief investment officer and co-founder of North Asset, said at a Bloomberg Link conference in Frankfurt. "Portugal needs to tap the credit markets next year and clearly that is not possible. Everyone is looking at Spain and France is the big elephant in the room." Spanish bonds fell for a ninth day today and the euro dropped against the yen and the dollar. A measure of manufacturing in the euro area contracted in March more than forecast, adding to concern that the major European economies of Germany and France are slowing. "The ultimate result is really very difficult to predict, but we will have some kind of common issuance or some countries will go out" of the 17-nation euro area, London-based Papamarkakis said. "But we will see a lot of volatility." The manager said that his company holds instruments that climb with rising volatility in fixed-income and interest-rate markets. He owns some sovereign bonds in the region, while he has shorted debt from other nations he didn't identify. Short sellers profit from taking bets that securities will drop in value.

Bet on Volatility

Investors should bet on an increase in volatility, said David Hauner, head of eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa fixed-income strategy and economics at Bank of America Corp.'s Merrill Lynch unit.
"The one thing you should be doing right now is buying volatility, because it is ridiculously low," Hauner said at the same conference. "It is hard to see what will we be the next source of disruption. But it is very clear that there will be a significant spike in volatility." Greece pushed through the biggest sovereign-debt
restructuring in history this month after getting private investors to forgive more than 100 billion euros ($132 billion) of debt. The Mediterranean nation needed the deal to obtain a second bailout from the other 16 euro-area countries. Politicians think that a country can default without disrupting the markets, Papamarkakis said.
"Greece means the private sector and the banking sector is in a worse situation, and that is what will happen with Portugal. We are actually increasing the risks" with bailouts for states and banks, "and I don't know if politicians appreciate the Pandora's Box they've opened with this Greece default."

Alexis Xydias and Abigail Moses (Bloomberg)

China Story Turns Negative

George Papamarkakis, co-founder of London-based hedge fund North Asset Management LLP, said he is concerned about declining investment in China's real-estate sector and what that will mean for demand for iron ore from Australia. Iron ore is the primary ingredient in steel, which is used in construction. Thanks in part to the iron-ore trade, China is Australia's biggest trading partner.

DJ Dollar's Plunge Hurts Hedge Funds Holding Bullish Bets

Many hedge funds managed to exit their bets on the dollar before its tumble Thursday.But an unfortunate few didn't make it out in time. The dollar plunged 2% against the euro to $1.419 Thursday afternoon in New York - its biggest one-day percentage drop since July 2010 - and saw even steeper losses against the Australian dollar and other currencies.
The drop came as European leaders secured a deal to reduce Greece's crushing debt and expand the firepower of their rescue fund for struggling members of the euro-currency zone. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy expanded by 2.5% in the third quarter, curbing fears of recession. However, funds had scaled back their bullish bets on the dollar in October, after piling into the currency the month before, when the economic outlook looked bleaker.
There was an "aggressive reduction of 'long' dollar positions," in October, according to JW Partners, a research and advisory firm for currency hedge funds. A long position is a bet the dollar's value will rise against other currencies.

Soros’s Quantum Holding 75% Cash Leads Hedge Funds Baffled by Instability

Keith Anderson, who runs the $25.5 billion Quantum Endowment Fund for Soros Fund Management LLC, has seen enough of choppy global markets.

In mid-June, Anderson told his portfolio managers to pull back on trades as the hedge fund’s losses hit 6 percent for the year, according to two people familiar with the New York-based firm. As a result, the fund is about 75 percent in cash as it waits for better opportunities, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the firm is private.

Soros and Moore Capital Management LLC are among hedge funds that have reduced the amount of money they’re investing in stock, bond and currency markets as they look for clarity on global events ranging from the debt crisis in Europe to China’s efforts to control inflation to the debate over the U.S. debt ceiling. About 18 percent of asset allocators, including hedge funds, are overweight cash, the highest level in a year and up from 6 percent in May, a Bank of America Corp. survey showed last month.

Traders' Targets: Portugal And Spain

As fears of financial "contagion" resurface in Europe on the back of Ireland's woes, hedge-fund managers are cautiously setting their sights on potential problems in countries such as Portugal and Spain. But they face political and other challenges in placing bearish bets.
The deteriorating economic picture in some corners of Europe clearly has the attention of many hedge-fund managers and other investors who see Ireland's rescue package as little more than a bandage for the continent's woes. They are expecting more bad news to come, predicting that borrowing costs elsewhere will become prohibitive, potentially forcing other countries to also seek a bailout or restructure their debt.

El plan europeo de apoyo a Grecia alienta a los especuladores financieros

La ayuda que la UE prometió ayer a Grecia para salvarla de la debacle económica carece de solidez para algunos `hedge funds´, que creen además que los responsables de los Veintisiete no están preparados para abordar el examen que supone la crisis interna que asola al país heleno.

Marc Von Rohr, del fondo de riesgo New Trend Capital Management, afincado en Zurich, Suiza, ha afirmado a EL BOLETÍN que la Unión Europea (UE) “encara un serio problema con Grecia”. “Por un lado, no puede permitir que Grecia salga de la Eurozona por las consecuencias que conllevaría, y por otro lado está el asunto de las ayudas, que puede crear precedentes negativos”, afirmó Rohr.

Bearish Bets On Greece: Short-Lived?

The short bet against Greece mightn't be around for long. The increasing possibility that European nations will come to the rescue of Greece is upending what had been a highly successful trade—betting that Greece would struggle or be unable to pay off its debt. The two main winning bets were buying credit default swaps, which rise as the risk of default increases, and shorting Greek bonds, which fall in value when the borrower is in trouble. In both cases, investors made big profits in recent months.

Now, with a bailout plan for Greece emerging, some investors are moving out of those now money-losing trades. A key factor hurting these trades is that if a plan goes through, there would be little doubt Greece could pay off the bonds it has issued that mature in April and May. On Monday, the annual cost of insuring €10 million of Greek government debt for five years was €341,000, down 14% from last Thursday. The cost hit a peak of €425,000 on Feb. 4.

Juncker pide a Merkel más apoyo para el euro

El primer ministro luxemburgués y presidente del Eurogrupo, Jean-Claude Juncker, ha advertido a Angela Merkel que Alemania debe incentivar el consumo interno para lograr fortalecer la moneda única e impulsar, así, la recuperación de la eurozona.

En una entrevista concedida al diario financiero alemán Handelsblatt, Juncker ha calificado de “necesario” un fortalecimiento “de la demanda interna” germana. Además, el mandatario luxemburgués, que también es uno de los líderes más respetados de la Unión Europea (UE), ha instado al motor del Viejo Continente a que reduzca los desajustes en la competitividad, que tienen como consecuencia una cada vez más precaria solidez de la moneda única.

La advertencia de Juncker es el primer aviso importante que Alemania recibe, después de que su índice de consumo interno cayese al finalizar el año pasado. Si la locomotora del euro ralentiza su marcha, la moneda única perderá consistencia en los mercados internacionales, perjudicando a la eurozona y beneficiando a las exportaciones alemanas, que según Simon Junker, analista del Commerzbank consultado por EL BOLETÍN, han ganado en importancia durante el año 2009, al encontrar en China un mercado ampliamente generoso.

La incertidumbre económica hunde la Bolsa española

La Bolsa española registró hoy una de sus jornadas más negras desde el estallido de la crisis económica. Su principal indicador, el Ibex 35, se depreció un 5,94%, hasta los 10.241,70 puntos. Habría que remontarse a noviembre de 2008, poco después de la quiebra de Lehman Brothers, para ver una caída similar. Los 35 valores que componen el índice cerraron con pérdidas y en algunos casos, como el de Ferrovial, superaron el doble dígito.

En un sólo día, el índice selectivo ha dicho adiós a 700 puntos y ha pulverizado las dos barreras de resistencia que más inquietaban a los analistas, situadas en los 10.500 y los 10.300 puntos. Si sus previsiones de hace una semana siguen ahora en pie, entramos en un terreno absolutamente desconocido.

Una de las explicaciones más extendidas es es la vulnerabilidad de la economía española, con más de cuatro millones de parados y un déficit público del 11,4%, ya no podía continuar pasando desapercibida por el mercado, sobre todo después de que ayer el Ejecutivo elevara la previsión de déficit para este año al 9,8%.

Los especuladores endurecen sus ataques contra la deuda española

Los especuladores financieros o ‘hedge funds’ han logrado, con la ayuda de algunos bancos, consolidar la rentabilidad del bono español por encima del 4%. Su estrategia sería obtener una ganancia doble: la reportada por la deuda irlandesa y la que les generaría su apuesta bajista por la española.

Un informe de la oficina londinense del Deutsche Bank recomienda a los inversores “comprar deuda pública irlandesa a 10 años y vender los bonos españoles”. Curiosamente, hace un mes, el pasado 18 de diciembre, el hedge fund afincado en Londres, North Asset Management, confirmó a EL BOLETÍN que su estrategia de inversión pasaba principalmente por Irlanda. “Irlanda es el ejemplo de estrategia que tenemos en estos momentos”, dijo George Papamarkakis, portavoz del fondo, a este periódico entonces. Es decir, que un mes después de que los fondos de alto riesgo entrasen en Irlanda, el Deutsche Bank recomienda comprar deuda pública de este país, mientras trata de rebajar el precio de la española, que quizás podría ser el próximo destino de algunos fondos que pretendan obtener una doble ganancia en el proceso: la que ya ha debido de reportar Irlanda y la que podría generar, ahora que ha superado el 4% de rentabilidad, el bono español.

Central Banks Rattle Markets

Tuesday's contrasting moves by two major central banks—Japan zigged while Australia zagged—are just a few of the many jolts that policy makers will inflict on currency markets in the months to come.
For currency traders, predicting these moves and making the right trades to profit from them could make or break their year.

Some of the steps seem obvious. The Reserve Bank of Australia has been ahead of the pack in raising interest rates—making its latest move on Tuesday—which has pushed the Australian dollar higher. Others are proving less predictable. Japan surprised the market on Tuesday by announcing plans to inject more money into its financial system, causing the yen to weaken.

The wrath of the titans

For many of the "anti-capitalist warriors" descending on the G20 summit in London, the excesses of the boom years are epitomised by hedge fund managers. Aggressive, arrogant and seemingly all-powerful, these secretive financiers became known for both for their sporadic attacks on public companies and an opulence that surpassed toffs, bankers and even footballers' wives.

"Forget McDonald's, forget Fred the Shredd [sic] – the rich hedge funders are the real enemies of the people," read one on-line posting last week. "The only thing the government is getting right is banning hedge funds," said another.

Away from the picket lines the views are similar. Hedge funds are the popular culprits, charged with helping to start the financial crisis, exacerbating it through the practice of short-selling and, worse, pocketing millions from the disasters.

In January, four top managers were lambasted by the Treasury select committee, accused of "gambling against the public". John McFall, the committee's chairman, said: "You're snubbing the public; not only that, but you're making shedloads of money."

President Obama has led the heavy charge of leaders, as well as regulators such as the head of the FSA, Lord Turner, and the European Commissioner, Charlie McCreevy, who have vowed to bring change to the high-rolling sector.

High Performance

John Paulson

Paulson Enhanced Partners
Paulson had a chance to learn from the best, working alongside legendary investors like Odyssey Partners' Leon Levy and Bear Stearns' Ace Greenberg early in his career. Something rubbed off. His Paulson Enhanced Partners fund, a leveraged merger-arbitrage vehicle with $2.78 billion in assets, has ridden the surge in merger and acquisition activity to big profits.
Merger-arbitrage firms essentially go long or short the shares of buyers or sellers in a merger deal, depending on whether they believe a deal is going to close at the promised time and price; be renegotiated up or down; attract more bidders; or possibly fall apart. Paulson's fund, ninth in our ranking, is pretty good at it, having posted a cumulative average gain of nearly 38% a year over three years; it was up more than 55% in 2007, through June.